<p>The Jason Division report went to Defense Secretary McNamara who, in turn, wrote a memo to President Johnson. "The increased damage to targets is not producing noticeable results. No serious shortage of POL (Petroleum, Oil, Lubricants) ... is evident ... No serious transport problem ... is evident; most transportation routes appear to be open, and there has recently been a major logistical buildup in the area of the DMZ. The raids have disrupted the civil populace and caused isolated food shortages, but have not significantly weakened popular morale ... In spite of an interdiction campaign costing at least $250 million per month at current levels, no significant impact on the war in South Vietnam is evident. The monetary value of damage to North Vietnam since the start of bombing in February 1965 is estimated at about $40 million through October 1966."
</p>
<p>There had been two expansions of the Rolling Thunder campaign, once in July and again in November, in the latter case moving to targets in the outskirts of Hanoi itself. The tactical air strikes flown by USAF and USN planes totalled 106,500; they were augmented by 208 B-52 sorties. Together they dropped 165,000 tons of bombs. It cost the Americans 45 aircraft.
</p>
<p>The defenses had grown stronger. There were more than 150 SAM sites by the end of 1965, a tripling in the course of about 12 months. The NVAF had gone on the offensive with new MiG-21s, armed with infra-red seeker missiles (NATO name 'Atoll'), and were operating out of five bases within the Hanoi sanctuary area. The Air Force diverted some of its McDonnell F-4Cs, used earlier as strike aircraft, to deal with the aerial threat posed by the MiG-21s. By year's end the MiG inventory had been reduced by 23, 17 of them brought down by USAF planes, at a cost of five losses.
</p>
<p>The 1965 and 1966 air campaigns were studied in some depth by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Total estimated casualties in 1965, said the agency, were 13,000 killed; in 1966, the number was 23,000 to 24,000. About 80 per cent of these were believed to be civilians. That totalled about 29,000 civilian casualties in the first two years of the bombing offensive.
</p>
<p>Rolling Thunder had flown about 55,000 sorties in 1965, and double that in 1966. It had cost $460 million in 1965, and $1.2 billion in 1966 to send those sorties North. And the study concluded that the bombing in 1966 " ... accomplished little more than in 1965."
